Current leader
Arsenal
70 points right now
Premier League 2025-26
Run-In Simulator
Explore title, Europe, and relegation odds from the latest snapshot, then drill into the fixtures shaping the table.
Snapshot date
2026-03-22
Remaining fixtures
71
Baseline loaded
10,000 sims
Scenario status
Baseline loaded
No fixtures are forced, so these numbers reflect the default run-in.
Biggest title swing
Arsenal
0.0% versus baseline
Biggest top-4 swing
Arsenal
0.0% versus baseline
Title favorite
ARSENAL
96.9% title odds
Most likely top four
ARSENAL, MANCHESTER-CITY, MANCHESTER-UNITED, ASTON-VILLA
Most likely relegated
WOLVES 100.0% | BURNLEY 99.9% | WEST-HAM 62.4%
Control panel
Scenario inputs
0 forced fixture outcomes selected.
Changes stay local until you run the simulation.
Team distribution
Arsenal
Points range
84
Median points, with a 10th-90th percentile range of 80 to 88.
Key outcomes
Most likely finish: 1
Title odds: 96.9%
Relegation odds: 0.0%
Position heatmap
Finish-position probabilities
Darker cells mean higher probability.
Team
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Arsenal
96.9%
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Manchester City
3.1%
91.6%
4.5%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Manchester United
0.0%
2.4%
46.7%
32.3%
12.9%
4.6%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Aston Villa
0.0%
2.9%
38.3%
37.9%
14.8%
4.5%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Liverpool
0.0%
0.1%
7.3%
16.6%
33.9%
23.5%
10.7%
4.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Chelsea
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
10.1%
25.9%
30.9%
15.0%
7.7%
4.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Brentford
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
1.3%
5.1%
12.9%
22.6%
19.4%
14.2%
10.7%
7.2%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Everton
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.7%
4.2%
10.6%
18.7%
18.9%
16.2%
12.6%
8.8%
5.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Brighton
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
1.7%
5.8%
11.4%
15.9%
16.6%
16.0%
13.2%
9.5%
6.8%
2.7%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Newcastle United
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
2.5%
7.1%
11.6%
14.9%
15.3%
14.8%
14.2%
11.0%
6.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Fulham
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.6%
2.6%
6.1%
9.5%
13.0%
15.1%
16.1%
16.1%
13.3%
6.7%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Bournemouth
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
1.3%
3.4%
6.8%
10.5%
13.0%
17.0%
17.4%
15.5%
11.5%
2.8%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Sunderland
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.6%
1.9%
3.2%
5.3%
8.8%
12.6%
18.3%
23.9%
19.3%
4.9%
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Crystal Palace
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.9%
2.1%
3.0%
5.3%
8.5%
12.7%
19.2%
33.0%
11.5%
2.9%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Leeds United
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
1.3%
3.5%
10.4%
38.1%
24.8%
15.3%
5.8%
0.0%
0.0%
Nottingham Forest
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.6%
1.3%
4.5%
18.5%
34.1%
28.7%
12.0%
0.1%
0.0%
Tottenham Hotspur
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.7%
3.1%
17.5%
26.5%
32.1%
19.7%
0.2%
0.0%
West Ham United
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
4.0%
9.9%
23.2%
61.1%
1.2%
0.0%
Burnley
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.9%
65.7%
33.3%
Wolverhampton Wanderers
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
32.8%
66.7%
Outcome table
Headline probabilities
| Team | Expected pts | Expected pos | Title | Top 4 | Top 5 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 84.2 | 1.03 | 96.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Manchester City | 74.7 | 2.03 | 3.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Manchester United | 65.7 | 3.74 | 0.0% | 81.4% | 94.3% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 65.7 | 3.85 | 0.0% | 79.0% | 93.9% | 0.0% |
| Liverpool | 60.8 | 5.43 | 0.0% | 24.0% | 57.9% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 59.0 | 6.03 | 0.0% | 13.1% | 39.0% | 0.0% |
| Brentford | 55.4 | 8.17 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Everton | 55.0 | 8.54 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Brighton | 53.0 | 9.51 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle United | 52.0 | 10.37 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 52.0 | 10.55 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bournemouth | 50.9 | 11.21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sunderland | 49.9 | 12.09 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 47.7 | 12.91 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Leeds United | 42.5 | 15.48 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.8% |
| Nottingham Forest | 40.6 | 16.18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.1% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 39.3 | 16.45 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.9% |
| West Ham United | 36.9 | 17.44 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 62.4% |
| Burnley | 26.6 | 19.32 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.9% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 24.5 | 19.66 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Fixture overrides
Remaining fixtures
Force home win, draw, or away win outcomes, then rerun the simulation from the control panel.
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Mar 21, 2026
West Ham United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Apr 10, 2026
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
Apr 11, 2026
Brentford vs Everton
Apr 11, 2026
Burnley vs Brighton
Apr 11, 2026
Liverpool vs Fulham
Apr 11, 2026
Chelsea vs Manchester City
Apr 12, 2026
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Apr 12, 2026
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Apr 12, 2026
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur
Apr 12, 2026
Manchester United vs Leeds United
Apr 13, 2026
Brentford vs Fulham
Apr 18, 2026
Chelsea vs Manchester United
Apr 18, 2026
Leeds United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Apr 18, 2026
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
Apr 18, 2026
Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton
Apr 18, 2026
Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Apr 19, 2026
Everton vs Liverpool
Apr 19, 2026
Manchester City vs Arsenal
Apr 19, 2026
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
Apr 19, 2026
Crystal Palace vs West Ham United
Apr 20, 2026
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Apr 24, 2026
Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Apr 25, 2026
Bournemouth vs Leeds United
Apr 25, 2026
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Apr 25, 2026
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Apr 25, 2026
West Ham United vs Everton
Apr 25, 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Tottenham Hotspur
Apr 25, 2026
Brighton vs Chelsea
Apr 26, 2026
Burnley vs Manchester City
Apr 26, 2026
Manchester United vs Brentford
Apr 27, 2026
Arsenal vs Fulham
May 2, 2026
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
May 2, 2026
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
May 2, 2026
Brentford vs West Ham United
May 2, 2026
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
May 2, 2026
Everton vs Manchester City
May 2, 2026
Leeds United vs Burnley
May 2, 2026
Manchester United vs Liverpool
May 2, 2026
Newcastle United vs Brighton
May 2, 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sunderland
May 2, 2026
Brighton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
May 9, 2026
Burnley vs Aston Villa
May 9, 2026
Crystal Palace vs Everton
May 9, 2026
Fulham vs Bournemouth
May 9, 2026
Liverpool vs Chelsea
May 9, 2026
Manchester City vs Brentford
May 9, 2026
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
May 9, 2026
Sunderland vs Manchester United
May 9, 2026
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United
May 9, 2026
West Ham United vs Arsenal
May 9, 2026
Arsenal vs Burnley
May 17, 2026
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
May 17, 2026
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
May 17, 2026
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
May 17, 2026
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
May 17, 2026
Everton vs Sunderland
May 17, 2026
Leeds United vs Brighton
May 17, 2026
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
May 17, 2026
Newcastle United vs West Ham United
May 17, 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham
May 17, 2026
Brighton vs Manchester United
May 24, 2026
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
May 24, 2026
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
May 24, 2026
Fulham vs Newcastle United
May 24, 2026
Liverpool vs Brentford
May 24, 2026
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
May 24, 2026
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth
May 24, 2026
Sunderland vs Chelsea
May 24, 2026
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
May 24, 2026
West Ham United vs Leeds United
May 24, 2026
Match importance
Highest-leverage fixtures
Leverage rankings are unavailable in the live build so simulation runs can return quickly.